17 February 2009

Mr. Fancy Computer makes Oscar predictions

Nate Silver, likely suffering from political polling withdrawals, was hired by New York magazine to put some Oscar data into a fancy computer machine, and then that fancy computer machine pooped out statistical leaders for the Oscars. (The article goes into details that are only slightly more detailed than that.)

Silver's predictions are, well, predictable. Rourke wins best actor, Winslet wins best actress, Slumdog Millionaire wins best picture, etc. I was more excited by the headline than the actual article, but I love the Oscars and pretty much anything associated with them. (They're like my Super Bowl. Deal with it.)

The only surprise for me was in the best supporting actress category. Here are Silver's numbers:

Taraji P. Henson.......................51.0%
Penélope Cruz..........................24.6%
Viola Davis..............................11.6%
Amy Adams..............................11.6%
Marisa Tomei............................1.2%
Taraji Henson played Benjamin Button's mom. She was, you know, fine, but I just can't imagine her winning this award, and I have a really hard time accepting that Viola Davis has only a 11.6% chance for a win. Of course, I also feel like Doubt should win the best picture award.

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